How the estimate works

What the number is

Each county page shows a modeled price for one full cord of firewood: seasoned, cut and split, and delivered. A full cord is a stack 4 feet high, 4 feet deep and 8 feet long. The number is our best estimate of what that costs in your county, with a range around it.

Where it comes from

Every county starts from a model. It uses two facts about the county: how cold its winters are, and how many homes there heat with wood. Then we add real prices where we have them. Those come from state price surveys, from prices readers send us, and from firewood sellers' own websites. The more real prices a county has, the more they count and the less the model does.

How sure we are

Three things on each county page tell you.

• The range. We expect the true price to fall inside it about 9 times in 10.
• The evidence label. It says what the number rests on.
• The rounding. A number with little behind it is rounded to the nearest $25. A well-supported one is rounded to the nearest $5. If the top of the range is more than twice the bottom, the page says the estimate is very uncertain.

How to read the label

• "Based on local prices" means real prices from that county move the number. The label gives the count.
• "Based on statewide data" means a state survey moves it, but nothing from the county itself.
• "Modeled from climate and demand" means no real price reaches it yet. It is the model alone.

Today 26 counties have some real price behind them. The other 3,118 are modeled alone. That gap is honest: few places publish firewood prices.

What would make it better

Your price. If you bought firewood recently, share what you paid on your county's page. Every price is checked before it counts, and no single price is ever shown on its own.